Polymarket, Kalshi: Inside Bets on Biden Pardons and National Security Chaos

Post date: April 18, 2026 · Discovered: April 18, 2026 · 3 posts, 26 comments

A specific allegation involved a bettor wagering on presidential pardons for Jim Biden, Liz Cheney, Adam Schiff, and Adam Kinzinger, alongside earlier wagers concerning Hunter Biden's pardon.

The conflict splits into two camps. One side screams for immediate, strict legal action, arguing these platforms facilitate illegal insider trading, with users like `AmidFuror` pushing for new laws nullifying short-term bets. Conversely, others, such as `psx_crab`, dismiss the alarm, branding the entire exercise as mere human 'thrill' or 'gambling.' The platform structure itself draws ire; `GutterRat42` notes these sites profit regardless of legality, painting the mechanism as a national security vulnerability.

The raw consensus points to alarm over the confluence of high-stakes betting and sensitive US political outcomes. The core fault line remains whether this activity is pure gambling or systematic market manipulation enabled by these platforms.

Key Points

SUPPORT

Online betting markets facilitate speculation on critical geopolitical and domestic events.

The general consensus is that platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi enable high-stakes betting on outcomes.

SUPPORT

The betting activity constitutes illegal market manipulation.

Multiple users argue that the potential for insider trading demands immediate, strict legal intervention.

SUPPORT

The function of the platforms creates a national security risk regardless of legality.

`GutterRat42` stated the mechanism generates profit regardless of the law's standing, suggesting systemic danger.

OPPOSE

The activity is fundamentally just sophisticated gambling.

`psx_crab` dismissed the severity, characterizing the whole affair as inherent human 'thrill.'

SUPPORT

Specific allegations centered on bets surrounding major political figures' pardons.

`HubertManne` detailed trades involving pardons for Jim Biden, Liz Cheney, and Adam Schiff.

Source Discussions (3)

This report was synthesized from the following Lemmy discussions, ranked by community score.

188
points
Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war. What is going on?
[email protected]·14 comments·4/18/2026·by HellsBelle·theguardian.com
126
points
A Polymarket trader made $300,000 betting on Biden's pardons, a new analysis shows
[email protected]·16 comments·4/17/2026·by Deep·text.npr.org
20
points
Trump may have given Iran a $500 bln money spinner
[email protected]·0 comments·4/4/2026·by yogthos·reuters.com